Disclaimer:
educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, and should not be considered as, financial or investment advice. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor. Trading in the foreign exchange market involves a significant level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
Introduction :
Gold has always been considered a safe investment. Whenever there is global economic instability, inflation, or dollar fluctuations, investors first turn to gold. This is why XAUUSD, or gold prices against the dollar, is considered very important in the forex market.
Each week, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decisions, inflation data (CPI, PPI), bond yields, and geopolitical conditions determine gold's direction. Technical charts (support and resistance levels) also provide important signals for short-term traders.
In this weekly analysis, we'll look at:
(1)Gold (XAU/USD) Trend Update — 4 October 2025
(2) We'll mark daily H4 (hour 4), H1 (hour 1), M15 (min 15), and M5 (min 5) levels and discuss them.
If you're a Forex trader or considering investing in gold, this report will help you understand the right direction.
Yesterday I took a share trade (demo account) which was to sell from the QML level of M5, in which I captured 60 pips. After this I took a trade from the level of M15 but it got a SL, which I had taken with a very small amount. Yesterday there was a US shutdown because there was no major news which was about to come, NFP (Non Farming Payroll). But yesterday there was ISM Services PMI news which was good news for that US, hence we got to see a fall in XAUUSD(gold) yesterday. Yesterday there were levels but after tapping the level the price was immediately making a SL of 40-50 pips, hence I did not take the trade.
Let's get started with the Gold (XAUUSD) weekly analysis. I need to tell you first that this is an analysis-only blog; it doesn't provide any trading signals, nor does it advise you to buy or sell. Let's get started.
(1) Gold (XAU/USD) Trend Update - 4 October 2025
Gold continues to capture the attention of investors worldwide. As of 4 October 2025, XAU/USD is trading near $3,885 per ounce, close to record highs. The current bullish sentiment is driven by a mix of economic uncertainty, central bank activity, and investor behavior.
Why Gold is Bullish Right Now ?
1. Safe-Haven Demand:
Recent global uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown, have pushed investors toward safer assets. Gold remains a primary choice for those seeking stability.
2. Rate-Cut Expectations:
Markets are anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Lower rates make gold more attractive, adding strength to the bullish trend.
3. Central Bank Purchases:
Global central banks continue to accumulate gold, with 2025 seeing around 1,650 tonnes purchased, up 17% from last year. This consistent institutional demand supports elevated gold prices.
4. Inflation and Dollar Weakness:
Rising inflation and a softer U.S. dollar further enhance gold’s appeal as a hedge against currency depreciation and purchasing power erosion.
Potential Short-Term Pullbacks
Even with strong bullish momentum, minor corrections are natural. Analysts suggest that small dips may occur, possibly testing lower zones near $3,750 per ounce. These are expected to be temporary, offering buying opportunities for cautious investors.
Outlook & Investment Perspective
If current conditions persist, gold could reach $4,000 per ounce in the near term. However, its performance will remain sensitive to:
Federal Reserve policy decisions
Strength of the U.S. dollar
Geopolitical developments
For investors, the key is to remain balanced take advantage of potential dips without overextending, and view gold as a long-term safe-haven asset.
Key Takeaways for Today
Trend: Mildly Bullish
Market Mood: Cautious yet optimistic
Potential Moves: Gradual upward drift with short-term corrections
Investor Tip: Treat small dips as opportunities, stay patient, and monitor news affecting global markets.
(2) Analysis XAUUSD
Now let's start the analysis. I have talked enough, I told you, we will do the analysis in four time frames. Whenever I open any chart, be it of gold or currency pair, I start with the daily one, it helps me in deciding my bias. Like if daily, H4, and H1 are in buying then my bias is to buy. If daily and H4 are in buying and H1 is in selling then I wait for the price to reach the level of H4 and then I buy from there. This concept is very big, we will talk about it some other day, let's start the analysis.
Daily TIMEFRAME IN XAUUSD (GOLD) :-
There are two levels in buying gold daily, which I will tell you about. But it will take time to reach those levels, and we, the retail-minded traders, cannot wait that long. But no, I am telling you those two levels. Mark them, whenever the price comes, you can buy on confirmation.
In conformation, change of character (CHOCH) of H1 will have to be wait.
Leval:
(1) TJL -1 (Trend joining leval) : 3707.600
(2) TJL -2 (Trend joining leval) : 3644.700
H4 TIMEFRAME IN XAUUSD (GOLD) :-
The price is also bullish on H4, so we will look for buying on H4 as well. For its confirmation, we will use the M5 (5-minute) timeframe. We can trade after the CHOCH on M5.
Leval:
(1) TJL -1 (Trend joining leval) : 3871.950
(2) TJL -2 (Trend joining leval) : 3816.440
Gold has breached the level of TJL 1 in H4, hence we will only see at TJL 2 how gold reacts and accordingly you can think about the trade.
H1 TIMEFRAME IN XAUUSD (GOLD) :-
Gold is also bullish on H1. We saw that the daily, H4, and H1 are bullish, so our bias will remain on the buying side over longer timeframes. The nearest level is H1, so we will see buying from H1 levels when confirmation is received.
There are two types of confirmations on H1: an M5 green candle and an M1 (Min1) CHOCH candle. We can trade on whichever of the two we choose. In my opinion, the M5 green candle is the best; its SL is slightly larger, but we can plan our trade by reducing our lot size.
Leval :
(1) TJL -2 (Trend joining leval) : 3799
M15 TIMEFRAME IN XAUUSD (GOLD) :-
There was barrish in M15 but its internal structure is shifting and it has become bullish. Therefore we will look at buying in M15 also. We have earlier marked the levels in the bigger timeframe, that is good for swing traders but we are retail traders. We want instant profit, hence we prefer smaller timeframes, hence M15 is the best time frame for intraday traders. M15 is bullish, to buy from it we only need to see a green candle in M1 (Min1) as a confirmation.
Leval:
(1) TJL -1 (Trend joining leval) : 3867.900
(2) TJL -2 (Trend joining leval) : 3859.100
TJL 1 has already been played on M15, the price has tapped and given away 200 pips, so we will only wait for the TJL 2 level tomorrow in the Asian session and will trade at that level.
I was going to mark the M5 level, but I trust the M15 level more than the M5 level, and I wouldn't trade on a timeframe lower than that on Monday. Because it's the first day of the market, it also impacts our psychology, which impacts our trades throughout the week. Therefore, if you believe me, ignoring the M5 level is the best option.
Finally, I want to say that this is all gold analysis; I'm not suggesting any trades. If you've read this, please leave a nice comment to inspire me. Thank you for posting such weekly analyses. See you tomorrow in a new blog post. Have a nice day...
